Avoiding the dangers of self-deception
Today I would like to introduce you to or remind you of the mental model of Optimistic Probability.
This is when you want something so badly to be true that you fool yourself into thinking it is likely to be true.
I see this happen in talent acquisition. This could be hiring staff or recruiting/drafting athletes.
Here is how this often plays out.
You find a talented person and fall in love with some aspect of this person. Falling in love can happen in several ways.
1. You see them perform or see their impressive resume and fall in love with them.
2. Someone you know and trust gives you their name as a possible fit for your organization.
3. They are head and shoulders above the other recruits or candidates. This could be they are talented (see #1) or that your other potential recruits or candidates are not very good so they look awesome comparatively.
So, for one reason or another, they are at the top of your 'wish' list. Then you or others who are a part of this process start to see some red flags.
One quote that I have been thinking about a lot lately is "People are always telling you about themselves, we just need to listen."
You have a recruit who is extremely talented. As you begin to get to know them, you start to see some arrogance or some immaturity.
They are telling you about themselves but because you want so badly for them to be a great fit, you won't listen. You fall prey to Optimistic Probability.
Or take a candidate for a position in your organization. Their resume looks like they would be the ideal person for the job.
As you move through the hiring process they start to tell you more about themselves. They are gifted but seem to be disengaged or aloof. But boy are they talented.
But because of Optimistic Probability, you keep selling yourself that they are a good fit.
You want this person so badly you overlook the red flags.
This is a classic case of falling prey to Optimistic Probability.
If you initially fall in love with this person, it is critical that you keep an open mind and be attuned to 'what they are telling you' so you don't end up bringing a person into your organization that is not a fit. Don't let falling in love with a recruit or candidate deceive you and blind you to red flags.
PS. It is not the ones that get away or you let get away that hurt you...it is the ones you get and are not a good fit that hurt you.
Click here to learn about/order my book The Leadership Greenhouse
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One of my weekly disciplines is scouring the internet for articles/tweets I can learn from and/or use with those I work with. Below are two that I hope help encourage and equip you.
Article 1- Interesting twist on how to name captains
Article 2- Clarity for Leaders- 3 Lines w/ 3 Words Each
Podcast: Jenny Rearick- Public speaking and presentation coach. Really insightful tips.
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